Florida’s third season under head coach Billy Napier begins Saturday afternoon at 3:30 p.m. ET in Gainesville against No. 19-ranked Miami.
“Just a few more days left here, and it’s critical that we continue to prepare all the way until the game,” Napier said Wednesday night. “Great work today, and I’m looking forward to complete the preparation the appropriate manner. They have a wonderful gleam in their eyes; look forward to Saturday.”
The game will mark the beginning of a pivotal year for Napier and his staff, who have gone 11-14 in their first two seasons in charge of the team.
“I’m excited to watch this team, man,” Napier remarked. “I have a strong belief in this group and our team. We’ve been working for a long time, and I believe we’ve succeeded—this group is enjoyable to be around. I appreciate the accountability at the player level, the ownership, and everything else we’ve talked about. We’ve developed some character and intangibles, which I believe will help us play better, and I’m grateful to the new staff members who have contributed. It’s time to go play. There’s not much more to talk about.”
1) What are your expectations for Florida’s passing offense with senior Graham Mertz back for a second year and five-star freshman DJ Lagway in the fold to back him up?
Blake Alderman: I’d want to see Florida take more shots this season, as the team has added a pair of seasoned wideouts via the transfer portal, a returning stud in Eugene Wilson III, and some of these younger wideouts with some wheels. Florida has improved its speed at the position, and Graham Mertz returns for his second year in the scheme. Mertz altered the narrative surrounding him as a player last season with improved performance. He accomplished this by keeping the ball under control and executing accurate throws. I believe most of it will continue this year, but I would want to see more shots taken and some of the Gators’ speed showcased. While this is Mertz’s crew, I believe DJ Lagway will make several appearances. He performed well in the spring game and possesses distinct strengths than Mertz. Perhaps some packages in which he shows off his legs, or even some RPO-style scenarios.
Graham Hall: I believe the Gators will attempt to take more chances downfield this season, given the additional athleticism at wide receiver on the squad and the uncertainty surrounding Florida’s running back production behind senior Montrell Johnson Jr. Mertz should have a similar performance to his 2023 season, and I expect the Gators to progressively increase their use of freshman signal-caller DJ Lagway as the season unfolds. Lagway’s skill set and potential are simply too great for him to be shelved for the entire season; the time has come to prepare him to lead the way under centre in 2025, and Napier has conceded that Florida’s offence is more difficult to prepare for when Lagway is involved in the gameplan.
Jake Rudner: Florida’s passing attack performed admirably last year, achieving consistency in the short to intermediate ranges while also protecting the football. Graham Mertz topped the Southeastern Conference in completion percentage and threw only three interceptions, all on tipped passes. However, as has been made clearly evident this offseason, simply repeating that performance will not be enough to help the Gators achieve their goals against one of the most difficult schedules in college football history. I expect Florida to be more aggressive in taking shots over the air in an attempt to improve their explosiveness, which they appear to have the tools for at their skill positions with plenty of speed. That being said (and I’ll elaborate later), I’m concerned that they won’t be as successful as they hope to be. In terms of how Florida will incorporate freshman DJ Lagway, I believe it is safe to assume that Mertz will handle the vast bulk of the reps at the position, with Lagway coming in on occasion as a change-of-pace option. It’s obvious that this is Mertz’s team.
2) Who will lead the Gators in receiving?
Alderman: I believe wide receiver Chimere Dike’s former connection with Graham Mertz from their time at Wisconsin will benefit him this season at Florida. Dike had his best year at the college level during their final season together on the Badgers team. Dike caught 47 catches in 2022, totalling 653 yards and six touchdowns. Despite being a transfer and learning the ins and outs of the offence at Florida, I believe his chemistry will make him a sort of safety blanket for Mertz. Eugene Wilson III is clearly Florida’s most entertaining offensive player, but one would expect him to be the focal centre of an opposing team’s game plan when facing Florida. It will be difficult to entirely isolate Wilson, but I believe that if this occurs, it will give many more opportunities for others to be open. I’ll choose the person who has a long history with UF’s signal caller.
Hall: I was inclined to go with either of the additional veterans, Elijhah Badger or Chimere Dike, and I feel they’ll have good games this season. Finally, my intuition told me to go with second-year pass catcher Eugene Wilson III. With a full year of preparation behind him – it’s worth noting that he had a great freshman season despite arriving as a midyear enrollee – I anticipate Wilson will command the bulk of targets for the Gators this season, while also being used out of the backfield at times. He’s made physical improvements, which should help him stay healthy during his sophomore season.
Rudner: When addressing his team’s offensive weapons this offseason, Napier has singled out only one guy as someone the Gators would be “intentional” about passing to: sophomore wide receiver Eugene Wilson. While the third-year Gator coach stated that Florida would have “other weapons” to rely on throughout the season, Wilson is “at the top of that list, for sure.” Given the number of opportunities the second-year Florida wideout could have this season, I find it difficult to pick against him as the program’s leading receiver.
3) Will Montrell Johnson surpass 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his career?
Alderman: “No.” The Gators have only had four 1,000-yard rushers since the beginning of the 2000s, the most recent being Kelvin Taylor in 2015, who rushed for 1035 yards. Johnson came close to that last season, with 817 snaps, and shared a lot of them with Trevor Etienne. So, if Johnson gets more snaps this season and they aren’t spread out as much, he may have a chance. I don’t know how prepared Johnson will be for Florida’s first game. He got his knee cleaned up this autumn, and while Florida says he’ll be available this weekend, it’s unclear how healthy he will be.If his recuperation process takes longer than expected, may this hinder him early in the season until he returns to full strength? Depending on the circumstances, you might perhaps deprive him of one or more games to accumulate yards. Even if Johnson gets more carries, Florida is still expected to rotate its backs, as the coaches has shown a preference for doing so.
Hall: While I’d want to say he will, I believe his existing limitations, along with the by-committee approach, will leave him just short in 2024. I believe an 850-yard season is realistic, as it is consistent with his career output. It has been a decade since a UF rusher has surpassed 1,000 running yards, and I do not expect that to change this season.
Rudner: To be honest, I believe it will be extremely close either way, but with Johnson available for the Gators’ season opener versus Miami, I incline towards saying yes. I expect Florida to bring in additional guys from what has been touted as a very talented running back room, but unlike the previous two years, I believe Johnson will be the clear leader in overall workload. Last year, Johnson accumulated 817 yards on 152 tries, while former Florida running back Trevor Etienne gained 753 yards on 131 attempts. Based purely on Johnson’s 5.4 yards per rush average, he would have reached 1,000 yards in 2023 with just 34 more carries. It wouldn’t surprise me if he had that use bump in 2024.
4) Who will lead the team in interceptions?
Alderman: Florida rotated defensive backs during spring and fall camp, and the club received some assistance from the NCAA Transfer Portal over the offseason. While his status as a starter is undetermined at the time of writing, I’ve seen or heard from our guys here that Tulane transfer addition DJ Douglas has made a lot of plays on the ball since his arrival. Even if he does not start this season, Douglas is projected to be in the running for playing time, and he appears to have a knack for being around the ball.
Jordan Castell is the name of the hall. His increasing comfort and confidence should lead to more than one interception this season. Teams will test Florida’s improved secondary,and I expect Castell to benefit.
Rudner: As I contemplated alternative responses to this question, I found myself torn between two options, and since there are no laws against ties, I’m going with both: cornerback Jason Marshall and safety DJ Douglas. Marshall appears to be as confident as he has been since arriving on Florida’s campus in 2021, emerging as a more vocal leader while also altering his body to improve his chances of being selected in the early rounds of the NFL draft. Marshall has also stated unequivocally that Florida’s three interceptions as a team in 2023 embarrassed him, and he feels accountable for addressing this. Douglas has been involved with football since the spring, recording numerous interceptions in practice and scrimmages. The Tulane transfer will earn reps at safety and STAR this season, versatility that I believe will help him to make a big effect on the Gators’ turnover rate.This season, the Tulane transfer will play safety and STAR, which I believe will allow him to improve the Gators’ turnover margin.
5) Who will lead the Gators in sacks?
Alderman: Due to injuries from previous seasons, Florida used Tyreak Sapp in a variety of looks up front. He played both the F and END positions for the Gators on defence. While it is still possible that he will play the same role as the season progresses due to different situations and the availability of other players, he is projected to see more plays at the F position this year. He’s quick and twitchy, so I expect him to show more flare this year. He would have to compete for reps at F with Justus Boone this season, since he has healed from an injury from the previous season, but Sapp appears to have a little more wiggle and a quick step to get in the backfield.
Justus Boone is in the hall. He’ll provide what Florida’s defence lacked a year ago, despite not being assured a starting spot at EDGE, where UF appears to be rotating routinely this season due to competition in the room. I expect Boone to end the season with approximately 5.5 sacks.
Rudner: This may be a daring and/or surprising prediction, but I believe junior Kamran James will lead Florida in quarterback takedowns in 2024. The 6-foot-5.5, 267-pound defender quietly ascended Florida’s depth chart in fall and will begin the season as one of three listed starters at the ‘F’ outside linebacker spot. James’ mobility will allow him to move around the line of scrimmage, making him a more difficult scout for opposing offences. According to my chats with sources, James has certainly looked the part heading into his second season. I’ll add that I don’t think any one guy has a genuinely jaw-dropping season in terms of sacks, and I believe whoever leads the team in that area may do it with a lower amount.
6) What gives you confidence in this Florida team?
Alderman: Florida returns many players from last season who have either had more time in the system (if they transferred) or are younger players who received snaps early in their careers because to the team’s youth last year. Florida did add some new portal pieces this season, but much of last season’s production is returning for another year, and you’d think they’d improved. It’s especially beneficial for UF that one of those returning guys is quarterback Graham Mertz.
Hall: Mertz’s comeback as starting quarterback, combined with secondary reinforcements. Florida’s coverage troubles from a year ago have been well documented; with Asa Turner, DJ Douglas, and Trikweze Bridges expected to contribute, the team should be significantly more capable this season. That alone could give UF a chance to play more games this season, and Mertz’s familiarity with his Gainesville colleagues and head coach Billy Napier should set the path for UF to be more formidable offensively in 2024.
Rudner: Every season, teams claim to be stronger and quicker than ever before, with players and coaches frequently using statements like “we’re in the best shape of our lives” or other such platitudes. Florida made the same claim this summer, but the difference is that it can prove it. The Gators are statistically stronger and faster than they have ever been under Napier’s guidance, thanks to a revamp in their strength and conditioning program this offseason that players appeared to like. I expect that to translate to the field, where Florida should be able to get greater push along the line of scrimmage, give more confident tackling, and play at a faster pace.
7) What’s your biggest concern for the Gators this year?
Alderman: The timetable. The Gators’ schedule is widely regarded as the most difficult in the country. There aren’t many opportunities to catch your breath in a critical third year when the staff is seeking to demonstrate progress. Injuries are a constant concern for teams across the country at various periods during the season. Florida’s timetable provides minimal possibility for delays of any kind. Florida could make growth as a team if there is improvement, but that would be obscured if the W/L record from this difficult schedule indicates otherwise.
Hall: The offensive line is still my biggest concern. Will the Gators be able to create openings on the right side of the offensive line? Will line of scrimmage infractions be an issue for the Gators in 2024? Will Mertz be susceptible to severe contact once more, increasing the likelihood of an injury and forcing UF to switch to a true freshman behind centre? It’s the one thing on this squad that stands out to me as we approach the season opening.
Rudner: I mentioned it in my response to the question regarding my expectations for Florida’s passing offence, but my biggest concern for the Gators this season is the possible disparity between how effective they want to be in the explosive passing area and how explosive they will actually be. Florida has the speed and desire to attempt and connect on more big plays through the air than they did a year ago, but concerns about the offensive line’s stability, as well as a lack of consistent efficacy in generating explosives throughout fall camp, have me wondering what the final product will be. Last year, Mertz connected on 41 percent of his passes that travelled 20 yards or more through the air and that was with first-round wideout Ricky Pearsall at his disposal. While I’m convinced Florida improved their receiver speed, it’s unclear whether they’ll have a consistent deep threat to whom Mertz can efficiently pass. It will also be critical to determine whether Mertz can be protected at a significantly higher rate than he was a year ago.
8) What’s your one bold prediction for 2024?
Hall: If you had asked me a week ago, I would have guessed Florida defeated FSU. After FSU’s Week Zero loss to Georgia Tech, that doesn’t seem as daring. Instead, I expect the Gators to upset LSU this season and finish with two victories during the difficult November schedule.
Rudner: Florida has not produced a 1,000-yard receiver since Taylor Jacobs in 2002, and I anticipate that will change in 2024 thanks to Eugene Wilson. Florida will send the ball in his direction frequently, and I believe the volume of touches will allow Wilson to surpass the historic threshold. Pearsall was really near (965 yards) in 2023, and Wilson has declared on several occasions that it is his ambition to be the first Gator to close the gap in over two decades.
